The Global Impact of Illinois Soy

Changes are coming to soy trade, they might not be the ones you’re thinking about. To fully understand the impacts of Illinois soybeans on the global level and the future of the market, one must first examine the bigger picture of global markets for our top commodities.

Global commodity demand has grown exponentially since the early 90s, with corn up 164%, wheat up 56% and soybeans up an incredible 305%.

World trade for soy is ultimately driven by population and income growth. The strongest markets for trade? The regions with oilseed deficits. And, those developing and emerging countries that are transitioning with demand for more animal and plant-based proteins.

Global soy production continues to deliver on those global soy demands, thanks to some major players who will continue to impact trade for the foreseeable future.

The Major Players: Brazil

U.S. soybean farmers are not the only ones with a commodity to sell. In the past decade, we’ve seen Brazil ramp up its production even more to meet growing needs around the globe. They’re producing and exporting at a higher rate than ever before.

Faster is not better in all instances. Brazil’s rapid approach to production growth by harvesting more acres has certainly caught global attention. Land-use change is still a very big concern for buyers around the world, and they are watching it closely.

Brazil’s infrastructure has not kept pace with its acreage growth, but ultimately the country’s approach has positioned it well for the future to export its farmers’ products.

The country will remain the leading global producer in soybeans over the next decade, and it will gain a larger share of the whole soybean market by 2034/35.

The Major Players: United States

The U.S. soybean approach to production is vastly different than that of our South American peers. Our production gains come down to the expertise we have in managing our acreage. Genetics, along with technology and practice adoption, are driving our growth in production – not increased acres.

Our commitment to growing more with less is not lost on our global markets and helps make U.S. soy stand out long-term.

The U.S. has also invested heavily in infrastructure, with crush capacity continuing to experience significant growth. By 2034/35, we will likely see soy crush exceed exports as the biggest driver of soybean demand in the U.S., though collectively, soybean and soybean meal exports together are projected to represent 39% of the U.S. crop. International markets will continue to have a significant influence on U.S. soy.

The U.S. is positioning itself for increased domestic demand for soybean oil thanks to the strong renewable-fuels market for biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. This means that the U.S. will look to export more soybean meal in the near future than it has historically.

We expect meal exports to grow 41% in volume by 2034/35, primarily to countries that have a need for feed including: Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam, among others.

It is also worth noting that despite the growth in soy crush and soy meal exports, we expect that whole-bean exports will be 70% of U.S. soy exports. Some people say, “Let’s crush the whole crop and only export products.” That is not practical, as many markets that have a need for both meal and oil want to import whole soybeans. U.S. soybeans have loyal customers around the world, and we want to continue supplying them with our differentiated, high-quality, sustainable soybeans.

Differentiation in Markets

Did you know that USSEC has a presence in more than 90 countries around the world? Relationship-building, technical education and overall positioning of U.S. soy has been taking place for decades.

Our trade markets have been in the headlines over the past year and I can’t think of a time when the strategic foresight to build relationships and awareness mattered more than it does now.

The fact is that U.S. soy has many advantages – sustainability, quality, consistency and reliability. It’s why we’ve built the relationships we have throughout the world.

U.S. soy exports to destinations other than China are up for marketing year 2025/26 compared to the same timeframe a year ago. This growth in exports did not just happen overnight. It reflects the diverse, checkoff-funded work being conducted in these regions for decades.

A Future in Trade

Trade is such an important part of soybean farmer profitability and one we’re working daily to impact. USSEC values free, fair and open trade, and we want to help as trade patterns shift.

The growth we have seen in global markets is a testament to the reputation U.S. soy has around the globe and demonstrates that U.S. soy is positioned well for the future. There is a lot to be optimistic about as we kick off 2026.

I look forward to discussing this in more depth at the Soybean Summit.